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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."